The world is on the brink of a potential global famine, and climate change is a key culprit. A super El Niño, characterized by extreme heat and drought, could significantly damage harvests and exacerbate global food insecurity this summer. Climate scientists, agricultural experts, and policymakers are sounding the alarm, warning that vulnerable populations are at risk of famine. But it's not just El Niño that's to blame; the current Middle East war, rising debt, and unsustainable food production systems are all contributing to this crisis.
The impact of El Niño is far-reaching. It alters rainfall patterns, shifts jet streams, and raises global temperatures, creating a perfect storm for extreme weather events. Human-induced global heating intensifies these dangers, making farm work unsafe in many regions and reducing crop yields. Modern agriculture, heavily dependent on fossil-fuel-based fertilizers, is particularly vulnerable. If these fertilizers don't arrive on time, crop yields can decline months later, leading to higher prices in wealthy countries and hunger in poorer ones.
Sub-Saharan Africa is especially exposed, importing around 80% of its fertilizers. The current Middle East war has exposed fault lines in our food production systems. Over the past few decades, food production has been reorganized into long, energy-intensive supply chains that rely on cheap fossil fuels, synthetic fertilizers, and monocultures. These systems can simultaneously raise total food production while worsening food insecurity, particularly in heavily indebted countries across the developing world.
The humanitarian charity Oxfam is calling for G7 countries to redirect less than 3% of their military spending to vulnerable countries to reduce chronic hunger and ease debt pressures. But emergency finance is only a stop-gap measure. Preventing future food crises requires structural change to how food is produced.
Livestock production, a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is among the most fertilizer- and fossil-fuel-intensive forms of agriculture. Expanding this system increases land use, fertilizer demand, energy inputs, and greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating climate breakdown. State support enables the expansion of feed-livestock production, with beef and milk producers receiving the largest subsidies. Redirecting these funds to food production for human need and planetary health could make a significant difference.
A shift towards more plant-based, agroecological farming would reduce pressure on land and cut demand for fertilizers and fossil fuels. Agroecology, a form of farming that works with ecological processes, emphasizes crop diversity, nutrient cycling, healthy soils, and locally adapted practices. While it may deliver slightly lower yields, it frees up land for scaling up food output. Studies show that diverse agroecological systems produce stronger food security and more nutritional food crops than industrial monoculture agriculture.
In southern Malawi, farmers shifted from monocropped maize to maize-legume intercropping, increasing yields with less fertilizer. With state support, such approaches could be scaled to strengthen national food security. Climate and geopolitical shocks, from El Niño to global heating or wars, hit a food system that already magnifies environmental and social vulnerabilities. Feed-based livestock production worsens climate breakdown, diverts land and resources from feeding people, and deepens risk. Shifting to agroecological, plant-centered food systems is essential, but it requires sustained political action and public pressure.
