The Chicago Cubs' struggles with runners in scoring position (RISP) have been a recurring theme this season, and it's a topic that Ian Happ, among others, has been vocal about. The team's inability to capitalize on their opportunities with runners on base has been a source of frustration, especially given their strong overall offensive performance. The Cubs' season-long numbers in various splits don't tell the whole story, as their performance with RISP has been particularly poor, even in wins. This has led to a 15-point wRC+ difference with the bases empty and with runners in scoring position, a substantial disparity that has been very noticeable.
The question arises: How bad could a team be with RISP over a full season? The author delves into this question, using the 2024 Tampa Bay Rays as a case study. The Rays, despite having a generally competitive season, struggled significantly with RISP, hitting an abysmal .212/.297/.335/83 wRC+ with runners in scoring position. This poor performance was consistent throughout the season, not just over a month and a half. The Cubs' current situation is similar, with a 17-point wRC+ difference during their recent dreadful stretch.
The author then compares the 2024 Rays to the 2026 Cubs, noting that both teams have similar offensive strengths and weaknesses. The Rays had eight hitters with above-average slash lines and five with a 113 wRC+ or higher, mirroring the Cubs' current lineup. This comparison raises concerns about the likelihood of the Cubs' performance improving significantly with RISP.
However, the author acknowledges that the Rays' performance with RISP was likely an outlier, and it's unlikely that the Cubs will continue to struggle in this area for an extended period. The author concludes that while the Cubs' struggles with RISP are frustrating, it's a common challenge in baseball, and the team should focus on improving their overall performance rather than solely on this specific area. The author also emphasizes the importance of recognizing that some low-probability events occur in baseball, and the Cubs should hope for positive outcomes like cycles and team walk-offs rather than prolonged underperformance with RISP.
